The conflict between supply and demand intensifies

2022-07-27
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As the contradiction between supply and demand intensifies, glass will still go down

since the middle of December last year, the price focus of 1405 contract, the main force of glass, has gradually moved down, which fully reflects the weak fundamentals. With the Spring Festival approaching, the downstream glass processing plants have been shut down one after another, but the spot supply has increased unabated. The intensification of the contradiction between supply and demand determines that the future glass price will continue the downward trend

the pressure on new production capacity remains unchanged

2013 saw a significant increase in the total production capacity of glass under the condition that glass manufacturers actively expanded production. According to the statistics of China Glass information, by the end of 2013, China's total glass production capacity had reached 1.08 billion heavy containers, an increase of 14.6% over the same period in 2012, and the growth rate increased by 5.2 percentage points. At the beginning of the new year, glass production capacity continued to grow. At present, a glass cold repair production line of Anhui Fangxing Technology (600552, Guba) with a daily melting capacity of 600 tons has been ignited, and the eighth line of Zhangzhou Qibin and the second line of Beijing Jinjing Technology (600586, Guba) are waiting for ignition. The short-term supply pressure of the glass industry is still large. In addition, according to statistics, the daily melting capacity of new production lines in the glass industry in 2014 totaled 9900 tons. Although the growth of glass production capacity slowed down significantly, the total glass production capacity continued to rise, which would greatly suppress the spot price

demand is in the traditional off-season

real estate. In 2013, the tightening of monetary policy and the introduction of the five national policies have achieved a series of research results: the developed special catalyst for pressure resistant pipes has a certain negative impact on the real estate industry compared with the imported catalyst Z501. From the statistical data, the growth rate of real estate sales from January to November 2013 was 20.8%, falling for seven consecutive months, indicating that the prosperity of the real estate industry has dropped significantly. Recently, according to the photo Index Research Institute of several common special engineering plastics in China, the national house price continues to rise, and the rise of house price in some cities exceeds the regulation target set at the beginning of the year. The market is worried that the later regulation may be increased. In addition, the construction operation rate before and after the Spring Festival is at a low value in the year, and the demand for building grade glass will be greatly reduced

in terms of automobiles, from January to November 2013, China sold a total of 1986.01 million automobiles, which has exceeded the annual sales of last year, with a year-on-year increase of 13.53%. There is an obvious positive correlation between automobile consumption and macroeconomic growth. It is expected that the GDP growth in 2014 will still be maintained at about 7%. The screen display of residents' income level will show that the light will be off, the door will be closed, the positioning, the zero position, the hammer will be grasped and the hammer will be lifted. The overall demand for automobile glass will remain stable

overall, although the demand for automotive glass is expected to maintain a stable growth, real estate accounts for more than 70% of the total demand for glass. In the short term, the operating rate of real estate will decline. In addition, the future policy pressure will remain. The demand for building glass will decrease, which will drag down the glass price

the spot price is expected to be fully lowered

recently, the loose glass price in Shahe region has become the focus of the market. November to December 2013 is the traditional off-season for glass sales, but the spot price of glass in Shahe region has always remained strong. However, after new year's day, most manufacturers began to reduce their glass prices due to the increasing inventory pressure, and the decline was concentrated at 10-20 yuan/ton. The market expects that its weathervane effect will gradually appear. At present, the shipping prices of some glass manufacturers in South China have decreased slightly, while the shipping prices of glass manufacturers in East and central China are still strong. From the perspective of inventory trend, since late October last year, with the cold weather gradually coming, the demand for building glass has been decreasing, and the inventory of glass production enterprises has continued to rise. As of January 3 this year, the national total glass inventory was 29.21 million heavy containers, an increase of about 5.9%. As the Spring Festival approaches, the downstream processing plants will be shut down for holidays, the inventory of glass enterprises is expected to continue to rise, and the national glass price is expected to be comprehensively reduced

to sum up, the downward tone of glass futures remains unchanged when the growth rate of glass demand is not equal to the growth rate of supply and the spot is expected to usher in a wave of price reduction

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